Climate Change and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Dynamic CGE Modelling
Conference
10th International Conference on Agricultural Statistics
Format: CPS Paper - ICAS 2026
Keywords: agriculture, climate change, climate risk, great -temperature
Abstract
The main objective of the paper is to examine the effect of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural commodity prices from 2023 to 2032. The Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) Model is employed to investigate the variables of interest.The study finds that climate change exerts a positive influence on agricultural commodity prices in Nigeria. This suggests that climate change, which is anticipated to result from the untamed drive towards economic expansion would have positive agricultural commodity price effect in Nigeria. Premised on these findings, we recommended that government should expand adaptation and resilience initiatives to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on farmers, fisherfolk, and other agricultural commodity producers and consumers. Additionally, transitioning from practices that emit higher levels of greenhouse gases to more sustainable methods of production and consumption is crucial.