Abstract

This paper examines the oil-food price nexus hypothesis amid global disruptions, investigating whether oil intensity is a determining factor in shaping global food price dynamics between 2010 and 2024. Understanding the relationship between energy and food markets has become increasingly important in light of global price volatility, economic disruptions, and the rising emphasis on food system resilience. Crude oil, as a critical input into agricultural production and distribution, plays a central role in shaping food price dynamics. For developing countries, where food expenditure constitutes a significant proportion of household income, particularly among vulnerable populations, fluctuations in food prices driven by oil market shocks have direct implications for inflation, welfare, and food security. However, existing studies on the oil–food price nexus in South Africa are limited, often focusing on narrow sets of commodities and failing to account for structural breaks resulting from major global events, thereby leaving a gap in knowledge concerning both the short- and long-term dynamics of oil price shocks on food prices. This study addresses this gap by analysing comprehensive FAO-defined food categories, incorporating oil intensity, and applying econometric methods that consider structural breaks caused by global disruptions.