Abstract

The global economic meltdown has exacerbated the vulnerabilities of households in the global south with Sub-Saharan Africa being the worst hit. This poly-crisis era is marked by price volatility, food insecurity, and high unemployment rates. While evidence abounds that price volatility may influence the food security status of households differently depending on their geographical location there is no universal consensus as to whether the impact of food price volatility on food security is higher in coastal or landlocked countries. We therefore examined the differential impacts of food Price volatility on food security in Nigeria and Burkina Faso using the Living Standard Measurement Study High-Frequency Phone Survey (LSMS-HFPS) data sets from 2020-2023. We fit a Linear probability Random-Effects (RE) model, controlling for other vector variables that can affect the food security status of the household. We employed the use of the local currency units (LCU) per dollar as the uniform unit of food price across both countries, enabling a standardized comparison. Our findings revealed the distinct patterns of food insecurity challenges between Burkina Faso and Nigeria. While food insecurity was aggravated by food price volatility in both countries, Nigerian households experienced greater severity of the food insecurity crises. The other significant drivers of food insecurity include gender, dependency ratio, and urban residency. We concluded that Targeted policy interventions are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of food price volatility on food security in both countries. Additionally, urbanization and gender are significant drivers of food security, confirming the critical socioeconomic dimensions of food security. Thereby underlining the need for targeted interventions to address food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable populations.
Our study has critical policy implications, especially in the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to enhance trade liberalization and economic integration. The following policy implications can therefore be drawn from our findings:
Efforts should be geared towards implementing price stabilization policies as well as effective grain reserves to buffer against price shocks.
Given the vulnerability of rural households to price fluctuations, targeted support for smallholder farmers through subsidies, access to credit, and improved agricultural inputs can enhance productivity and food security. Integrating these support measures within the AfCFTA framework can help farmers benefit from larger markets while mitigating the risks of price volatility.
Our study revealed the increased vulnerability of female-headed households and those with higher dependency ratios thereby highlighting the need for targeted social protection programs. Policies that provide safety nets, such as cash transfers and food assistance which can help mitigate the adverse effects of price volatility on these vulnerable groups should thus be enacted.