Abstract

This study examines two issues. First, to explore the annual change in the agricultural productivity index in the pre- and post-2003 Malabo and 2014 Maputo commitments in SSA, as well as across each country. Second, to investigate the impact of the 2003 Malabo and 2014 Maputo declarations on the Agricultural Productivity Index in the region. Our analysis reveals that the annual change in the agricultural productivity index before and after the 2003 Malabo commitment is positive (indicating an upward trend). However, it is only significant before the commitment. The annual change in the agricultural productivity index after the 2014 Maputo commitment is negative, indicating a downward trend that is statistically insignificant. The results across individual SSA countries yielded mixed results. For example, 16 countries showed a significant and increasing trend in the agricultural productivity index compared to 13 countries that showed a significant and declining trend post the 2003 Mapuo declaration in the study. Following the Malabo commitment, we observed that 10 countries exhibited a significant upward trend in the agricultural productivity index, whereas 24 countries showed a significant downward trend. This means more countries experienced a statistically significant downward trend in their agricultural productivity index following the 2014 Malabo commitment. As for the estimated causal impact of both commitments, we find that the Malabo and Maputo policy commitments have a positive effect on the agricultural productivity index. However, the estimates are barely significant in the study.