Food Inflation in Poland: Measuring Macroeconomic Shocks – A Bayesian SVAR Approach
Conference
10th International Conference on Agricultural Statistics
Format: CPS Paper - ICAS 2026
Keywords: bayesian approach, food, inflation, shocks
Abstract
In the context of global warming and recurring economic crises, food prices have become an increasing challenge for households worldwide. Concerns about rising food prices, food security, and living standards are being exacerbated by the price volatility and increasing dynamics of agricultural products. Despite the importance of this issue, relatively few studies focus on European countries. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of global macroeconomic shocks on food prices in Poland using quarterly data for the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2024. To this end, a Bayesian SVAR model identified through sign restrictions is employed to assess how such shocks have influenced the dynamics of food prices. The findings of our study have implications for policymakers and add to theoretical analyses of the inflation of food prices.
Figures/Tables
Figure 2. Impulse Response Functions of Food Price Inflation
