Quantitative assessment of agrifood systems: methodology and applications
Conference
10th International Conference on Agricultural Statistics
Format: CPS Paper - ICAS 2026
Keywords: agrifood, assessment, diagnostic, indicators, performance, policy, quantitative, systems
Abstract
A functional agrifood system (AFS) is one that consistently delivers desirable outcomes to ensure production, food security, nutrition, equitable livelihoods, and environmental sustainability, and thus, supports progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving this vision often requires repurposing AFS to become more efficient, inclusive, sustainable, and resilient. For governments and development partners, a critical first step in this transformation is to diagnose the dysfunctions that hinder the AFS performance, and opportunities with potential for desired change. Such diagnostics provide the evidence base needed to prioritize interventions, design effective policies, and ultimately reshape systems to deliver on these goals.
This paper introduces a quantitative methodology for assessing AFS performance at the country level. The approach forms part of FAO’s Analytical Support Mechanism for Agrifood System Country Programming and Evidence (SCOPE) and is designed to generate policy and programming-relevant diagnostics that directly support UN country programming processes, such as the Common Country Analysis (CCA) and the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF). Beyond this, the methodology also provides evidence to inform national policies and strategies, ensuring alignment between UN programming and government priorities. The methodology operationalizes a holistic, interdisciplinary systems approach to understanding agrifood systems. Rather than prescribing solutions upfront, it focuses on systematically analyzing how the system currently functions relative to normative, desirable outcomes. This positive diagnostic approach identifies gaps, weaknesses, and priority areas for targeted improvement while remaining flexible and responsive to country contexts.
The assessment follows a hierarchical framework of outcomes and cross-cutting areas, themes, subthemes, and indicators. Outcomes define the desired end states of agrifood systems, aligned with global goals such as the SDGs. Themes link these outcomes to policy and programming entry points, while subthemes support ease the analysis and ensure comprehensive coverage. Indicators then measure performance within each subtheme. Indicators were selected through a structured consultative process, starting from global frameworks and refined with expert and regional input to ensure validity, relevance, and usability. The final set balances global comparability with local applicability, adding country-specific indicators where needed.
The methodology for assessing agrifood system performance combines two complementary analyses: current status and trends over time. The current status assessment compares country indicators with global and regional benchmarks, harmonizing data through cleaning, normalization, and directionality alignment to classify performance levels. The trend assessment tracks changes relative to a fixed baseline year, identifying whether indicators are improving, stagnating, or deteriorating. Together, these analyses reveal critical dysfunctions by assessing country performance against others and across time, providing insight into both structural gaps and emerging risks.
The methodology is intentionally country-focused, with benchmarks and thresholds framed around national conditions and peer comparisons rather than global rankings. This approach enables a broader, more diverse set of indicators aligned with local priorities and data availability, while ensuring relevance for assessing a country’s performance against its peers.
The assessment approach is particularly relevant in today’s context of intersecting crises. Climate shocks, market disruptions, and rising inequality demand tools that go beyond sectoral data to provide a comprehensive, systems-wide perspective. By bringing together diverse data sources and aligning them with a coherent framework, the methodology supports evidence-based decision-making that is both globally informed and locally grounded. When applied through FAO’s SCOPE mechanism, it serves as a practical instrument for country programming and UN system coordination. At a strategic level, it provides a clear, evidence-based overview of national agrifood system performance. At the technical level, it narrows the focus to priority AFS themes, enabling deeper analysis and the identification of leverage points to address the observed dysfunctions.
While this abstract does not present empirical applications, the full paper will demonstrate the methodology in practice through country case studies, showing how it informs concrete programming processes within the UN.
This work contributes to the ICAS X 2026 theme of “Innovative Data Approaches: Shaping Resilient and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems in the Digital Age.” By offering a scalable and adaptable country-level assessment approach, the methodology equips governments and their partners with the tools to monitor performance consistently, prioritize investments, and track progress toward nationally defined goals. It strengthens the evidence base for strategic decision-making and supports the design of interventions aimed at achieving sustainable and resilient agrifood systems.