Abstract

Introduction
For millions of farmers across Indonesia, vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks is a challenge that shapes their livelihoods and futures. However, efforts to support them have been hampered by the lack of a nationwide measure of resilience. While previous studies have offered valuable localized insights, their limited scope has prevented the formation of a cohesive national perspective. This research addresses that gap by adapting the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) framework to Indonesia’s nationwide survey. In doing so, it seeks to provide a clear and evidence-based recommendation for designing more effective and targeted agricultural policies.

Aims
This research has two primary objectives. First, it aims to construct a composite Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), a nuanced metric that quantifies the resilience of each farmer using the national dataset. Second, it seeks to investigate how this resilience is distributed and assesses its variation across provinces and farm scales.

Methods
The study utilizes microdata from the 2024 Indonesian Agricultural Economic Survey (SEP 2024). Drawing on the FAO-RIMA framework, the study systematically maps survey variables onto six core pillars that construct farmers’ resilience: climate extreme resilience, access to basic services, assets, social safety nets, stability, and adaptive capacity. These pillars were then quantified using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a two-stage approach, allowing complex realities of farmers’ resilience to be captured in a single measurable index. In the first stage, multiple indicator variables for each of the six pillars were aggregated into component scores. In the second stage, these six scores were aggregated to construct a composite RCI for around 29 million farmers.

Results and Analysis
The analysis revealed that the majority of farmers (88.88%) fall within the moderate resilience category, indicating a degree of stability but highlighting the vulnerability of this position. More than one in ten farmers (10.03%) remain in the low resilience category, where even minor shocks can significantly threaten their livelihoods. By contrast, only 1.09% of farmers achieve high resilience, suggesting the rarity of secure farming livelihoods in Indonesia.
The construction of RCI shows that it is most heavily influenced by the pillars of climate extreme resilience (such as natural shocks, pests and diseases, and land degradation) and stability (such as relative economic performance and profitability). This indicates that a farmer’s ability to withstand climate-related shocks and maintain economic stability is the most critical determinant of overall resilience. Furthermore, resilience capacities are not distributed equally across the country. For instance, Jawa Barat and Jawa Tengah, the provinces with the highest concentration of farmers in Indonesia, have an average RCI score that falls below the national level, indicating a persistent structural vulnerability in Indonesia’s main agricultural regions.
A particularly consistent pattern emerges in relation to farm size. Farmers cultivating less than 0.5 hectares of land recorded an average RCI of 50.18, while those operating more than 1 hectare achieved an average of 56.33. This gap demonstrates the enduring performance of land access as a determinant of resilience capacity, with larger holdings providing greater buffers against shock and broader opportunities for adaptation.

Conclusion
Strengthening resilience requires more than generalized interventions. Policy efforts must prioritize addressing the vulnerabilities of smallholders, mitigating regional disparities, and enhancing both economic stability and capability to cope with climate extremes that underpin resilience.

Keywords: Farmer resilience, Resilience Capacity Index, climate extremes, stability, landholding size, regional disparities.