Abstract

We assess how climate change is reshaping Indonesia’s fisheries by integrating satellite-derived ocean variables, AIS vessel activity, and household microdata within a three-phase, policy-oriented framework. First, we construct 5×5 km habitat-suitability maps (2004–2024) using SST, chlorophyll-a, salinity, and bathymetry to identify shifts in species-viable grids. Second, we quantify exploitation via a vessel-to-species ratio from AIS tracks on the same grid system. Third, we project ecological and socioeconomic impacts with GAS-COM Poisson time-series under RCP2.6/RCP8.5, GWR for spatial income sensitivity, MCDA for WPP-level vulnerability, and a regression of climate-driven income loss. The results show a sustained contraction of suitable habitats, most notably in the Java, Arafura, Banda, and Timor seas, and a spatial mismatch between fishing effort and ecological capacity, with overexploitation concentrated in WPP 718 (industrial fleets) and heightened vulnerability among artisanal fishers in WPP 712. Under high-emissions scenarios, national catch potential could decline by up to 40% by mid-century (vs. 16% under RCP2.6), with associated household income losses reaching 30% absent adaptation. These findings directly inform climate-resilient fishery governance, prioritising effort rebalancing, stricter monitoring, and targeted livelihood diversification, aligned with National Planning 2020-2024 and SDGs 1, 2, 8, 13, and 14.