Farm-level agricultural productivity and extreme weather events
Conference
10th International Conference on Agricultural Statistics
Format: CPS Paper - ICAS 2026
Keywords: climate change, productivity
Abstract
Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns affect yields and productivity, posing one of the largest threats to future food security. To measure the impact of extreme weather events on yield, we use information on i) water availability, ii) household location, and iii) growing season. This is to ensure that the relationship between extreme events (here defined by water availability) and yield is measured at the time and location where the crop is grown. We match growing-season information with detailed geospatial climate data and household survey data. The final constructed dataset contains information on weather events, yield and household characteristics for 6 crops across 5 countries, totalling 31,085 unique observations. The results indicate that deviations – whether above or below expected climate conditions – tend to reduce agricultural productivity. However, the tolerance level to such deviations before negative effects emerge varies across crops, highlighting heterogeneous climate impacts..