Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a vital role in the economy of the Republic of Moldova, contributing significantly to national exports and food security. This study analyses the dynamics of agrifood exports, domestic production, and self-sufficiency levels during the period 2015–2024, using data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs data, and mirror statistics with some partner countries. The aim is to assess the relationship between production capacity, export performance, and domestic food availability, providing insights into Moldova’s resilience and competitiveness in the regional agrifood market.

The research integrates multiple statistical sources to develop a comprehensive overview of Moldova’s agrifood balance. Export trends were analyzed by major product groups—cereals, vegetables, fruit and nuts, grapes, oilseed, leguminous and sugar crops, main animal products—representing the main pillars of the country’s agricultural production and trade. The study employs analyses to evaluate the consistency between production and exports, as well as self-sufficiency ratios derived from national food balance sheets.

Results reveal that Moldova remains a strong net exporter of crop-based agrifood products, particularly cereals and fruits, while maintaining partial dependence on imports for animal-origin products. Traditionally, domestic production exceeded consumption for several key categories, such as cereals, fruits and nuts, grapes, oilseed, leguminous crops, indicating robust production and export potential in these sectors. However, self-sufficiency level is low for vegetables, potatoes, main animal products, highlighting continued challenges in livestock and perishable crop production.

The analysis of mirror statistics also points to discrepancies between declared export data and corresponding partner import records, suggesting underreporting or re-export phenomena in selected product lines.

Overall, the study underscores a dual characteristic of Moldova’s agrifood system: strong export performance in specific high-value sectors alongside persistent import dependency in others. The results emphasize the need for integrated data systems linking production, trade, and consumption statistics to support evidence-based policy planning. Strengthening agricultural value chains, promoting diversification, and improving statistical interoperability between national and international data sources are essential for ensuring food security and export sustainability in small, trade-dependent economies.