Abstract

As in many Southeast Asian countries, Myanmar’s agricultural sector faces significant challenges, including water scarcity, inefficient use of productive resources, and low agricultural productivity. Integrated Crop and Aquaculture Farming (ICAF) systems offer a potential pathway to alleviate these challenges by creating a synergetic environment where crops and aquaculture can thrive. At the same time, it also enhances environmental sustainability, economic resilience, and household food and nutrition outcomes. This study evaluates the impact of the Integrated CAF system on household food security experiences and explores its adoption among vulnerable farming households in some key regions of Myanmar. We use data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) – Round 6 (2023), collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the USAID Feed the Future Suitability Data (Aqua-DST). Our analysis employs logit and propensity score matching (PSM) regressions to assess the causal relationship between ICAF adoption and household food insecurity (FI). The logit model estimates the likelihood of FI, while PSM controls for potential selection bias in the adoption process.

Our preliminary results indicate that 45% (5,828) of the 12,898 surveyed households depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and only 2% practice ICAF. About 63% of these households are male-headed. Adoption of ICAF is concentrated in regions such as Sagaing, Ayeyarwady, and Mon. Our findings suggest that ICAF households have significantly lower odds of experiencing FI (OR = -0.38**), while non-ICAF households face higher odds (OR = 0.2***). This trend is particularly pronounced in top regions where ICAF is adopted, such as Sagaing (-0.31**), Mon (-0.408***), and Ayeyarwady (-0.35***). Other influential factors include gender and climate shocks, i.e., female-headed households and those exposed to droughts, floods, or high temperatures face higher odds of experiencing FI. In contrast, households with education beyond grade 5 are significantly less likely to experience food insecurity (-0.35***).

We also examine factors influencing ICAF adoption, such as farm size, household wealth index, and Aqua-DST-derived suitability scores. Although still in progress, our initial findings suggest that ICAF adoption can enhance water-use efficiency, food production, income, and food security. However, understanding its policy context is equally essential, as the adoption pathway may also be shaped by institutional support or regulatory constraints rather than only technical and financial means. This research provides causal evidence for ICAF as a promising nature-based solution and an integrated approach for strengthening agrifood systems by adequate use of water and land to support the food security target. It contributes to sustainable agricultural practices and supports the achievement of SDGs related to hunger, water, land, and poverty reduction.