Abstract

Global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are one of the main concerns of
humanity in the 21st century. In 1970, GHG emissions were 24 tons of CO2 Equivalent; however, it has more than doubled in half of a century, reaching 53 tons of CO2
Equivalent in 2023 (Crippa et al, 2024). Although emissions by country have changed
over time, especially from developed countries towards developing countries, 2/3 of all
emissions are concentrated in seven regions of the globe over the entire period: USA,
European Union (27 countries), Japan, China, India, Russia and Brazil, see Graph 1. Although developing countries increased their contribution to the total
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, one of them differs in terms of their main sectors
contributing to it: Brazil. While most of the contributions from developed and developing
countries reside on energy generation (Power Industry) and manufacturing operations
(Industry Combustion), the main sector contributing to GHG in Brazil is Agriculture:
nearly half in 2023, see Table 1. t of the Brazilian GHG emissions profile because it includes Land Use, Land-Use
Change and Forestry (LULUCF), Tsai et al (2024) demonstrated that LULUCF
represented 46% of the Brazilian GHG Emissions and agriculture 28% (nearly 3/4 of the
total Brazilian GHG emissions). Among LULUCF subdivisions, degraded pastures are
one of the main elements. Therefore, Brazilian policies to address the issue of climate
change due to GHG emissions should be different than the other six regions previously
mentioned (developed and developing countries).
What explains this different Brazilian emissions pattern to the other main GHG
emissaries is the increasing world demand for food, despite the productivity growth of
the Brazilian agricultural sector to attend this demand corroborated by an extensive
literature (Arias et al, 2017; Bustos et al, 2016; Contini and Geraldo, 2010; Rada et al,
2019). The environmental effects of this agricultural expansion have already been
investigated in the economic literature (Assunção et al, 2017; Carreira et al, 2024;
Oliveira et al, 2025). However, the recent literature concentrates its investigation on
deforestation, rather than degraded pastures. Additionally, the focus has been on crops
rather than livestock. These two aspects remain under explored in the economic literature,
and both deserve closer attention due to economic and environmental aspects. First, the
rising living standards of the world population due to higher income per capita will raise
the demand for protein. Second, improving degraded pastures into other agricultural use
will capture GHG emissions alleviating the environmental impacts of other economic
activities.
Brazil has 152 million hectares of pasture (18% of its territory) according to Brasil
(2024). This area is equivalent to the 18th largest country in the world (Mongolia with 156
million hectares) and 2.5 greater than the largest European country (Ukraine with 60
million hectares). Nearly 2/3 of the Brazilian pastures present some degree of degradation
(96 million hectares), which is similar to the size of Tanzania, Nigeria, or Venezuela and
larger than any European country. Given this background, it is important to measure what
was the contribution to the Brazilian meat exports to this scenario of pasture degradation.
Using Brazilian exports at municipality level by HS code at four-digit (HS4) from
1997 until 2024 available from COMEX STATS and pasture conditions at municipality level from 1985 until 2023 available from ATLAS PASTAGENS, it is possible to
construct a panel data of over 5 thousand municipalities from 1997 until 2023 (27 years).
This dataset will enable us to investigate the causality of cattle meat exports to pasture
degradation because we will have access not only to the exports of cattle meat but also
from other types of meat that are not related to pasture degradation (such as pork and
chicken, which can be used as instruments for causality inference). Moreover, we will be
able to evaluate whether the expansion of other agricultural products (different crops)
may contribute to the reduction of the percentage pasture degradation at municipality
level. The results of this research project might shed some light for policy implications
on key relevant topics (such as climate change, food supply, and environmental impacts)
in one of the most relevant countries for those issues across the globe: Brazil.