From Headline Inflation to Insight: Enhancing the Value of CPI through Statistical Analysis and Visualization
Conference
Format: CPS Abstract - IAOS 2026
Keywords: consumer price index, digital, index, systematic analysis, user needs
Session: Inflation & index measurement topics
Tuesday 12 May 4:30 p.m. - 6 p.m. (Europe/Vilnius)
Abstract
While Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are widely used by policymakers, media, and the public, analytical attention often stops at headline inflation, limiting the deeper value of price statistics. This paper demonstrates how accessible statistical techniques and tailored visual tools can significantly enhance the interpretability and policy relevance of CPI data in a digital society. Using official monthly CPI series and sub-indices from Lesotho, we apply descriptive statistics, index decomposition, and time series analysis to examine inflation trends, seasonality, volatility, and component contributions. The analysis is enriched with a sub-national perspective, illustrating stark price disparities: for example, average prices in the three southern region districts such as Qacha’s nek, Quthing, and Mohale’s Hoek reveal significant variations, demonstrating that a national, one-size-fits-all inflation figure often masks the true economic picture.
Tables summarize expenditure group contributions, volatility measures, and correlation structures, while graphical outputs, including CPI level and inflation rate plots, seasonal pattern charts, rolling volatility graphs, and contribution bar charts, support an intuitive understanding of inflation dynamics for non-technical users. Our findings highlight heterogeneous inflation behavior across CPI components, with food prices exhibiting markedly higher volatility and stronger seasonal patterns than non-food items. By transforming raw CPI data into clear analytical and visual outputs, the paper illustrates how official statistics can more effectively support evidence-based policy formulation, public communication, and statistical literacy. The study contributes to broader statistical discussions by demonstrating that delivering actionable insights from CPI does not necessarily require advanced models, but rather a commitment to systematic analysis, clear presentation, and leveraging digital tools like interactive dashboards to meet the diverse needs of users in a digital environment.