Abstract

Indonesia has established one of the world’s largest centralized and digital population identification systems through the National Identification Number (NIK) and achieved near-universal coverage. However, despite this progress, birth registration requires at least five years to reach 90% completeness, while death registration remains at around 60% even after five years. Consequently, the country still relies on censuses and household surveys as sources of vital statistics.

This paper presents a policy-oriented, work-in-progress assessment of how investments in civil registration can support the sustainable production of vital statistics in Indonesia. The analysis focuses on investment priorities in civil registration that matter most for producing reliable and usable vital statistics. An activity-based costing approach aligned with the Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM) is applied to estimate investment needs across key areas, including policy and institutional coordination, administrative capacity, information technology infrastructure, and interventions to improve registration completeness. Cost estimates are developed for a scale-up phase (2026–2030) and a subsequent maintenance phase.

Preliminary findings suggest that investments aimed at improving registration completeness absorb the largest share of total costs, indicating that completeness represents a critical structural constraint for producing usable vital statistics. Information technology investments play a supporting role by enabling greater automation and reducing long-term operational costs, particularly through improved reporting of births and deaths occurring in health facilities. Comparative cost indicators suggest that investments in civil registration can help improve the efficiency and targeting of censuses and surveys by strengthening the underlying system for vital statistics production. The proposed cost estimates are intended as a realistic entry point for CRVS strengthening rather than an ideal end-state, recognizing that large upfront investments may face political and fiscal constraints and that phased investment approaches are therefore critical.

The analysis is informed by stakeholder consultations conducted in January 2026 and remains subject to revision. The paper discusses policy implications for phased and targeted investment strategies to strengthen the production and use of official vital statistics.