Abstract

Authors:
Blagica Novkovska, University of Skopje, Faculty of Economics, Skopje, The Republic of North Macedonia (blagica@novkovski.com)

Ksenija Dumičić, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia (kdumicic.prof@gmail.com)

The fertility statistics for the European Union for 2023 show that the total fertility rate (TFR) has continued to fall, reaching a historic low of 1.38 live births per woman, according to Eurostat. This drop is consistent with a long-term trend over the last six decades, with roughly half as many children born now as in the 1960s. The TFR varied across countries, with Bulgaria having the highest at 1.81 and Malta the lowest at 1.06, according to Eurostat (2025). In addition, the average age of women at childbirth increased to 31.2 years in 2023, with TFR for women over 30 increasing while rates for those under 30 decreasing, indicating delayed motherhood.
In this research, the total fertility rate (TFR) and selected environmental, demographic, and economic development-level indicators for selected European countries are examined. The environmental variable, domestic net greenhouse gas emissions; the demographic variable, share of females in the population; and the economic development-level indicators, GDP per capita in PPS and female unemployment rate, are included.
Primarily, the analysis focuses on the relationships among TFR, greenhouse gas emissions, and a range of socioeconomic indicators for the 27 European Union countries in 2023. Furthermore, the time series analysis of the TFR was conducted over the last 10-year period. Following exploratory data analysis, outlier detection, correlation analysis, and hierarchical clustering based on Ward linkage and squared Euclidean distances, three distinct clusters were identified. The first cluster includes countries with high fertility, fewer emissions, and lower GDP per capita, which are usually accompanied by low female unemployment. The second cluster consists of countries with low fertility, low emissions, a low GDP per capita, and notable female labour market pressures, as evidenced by higher female unemployment and larger female population shares. The third cluster includes countries with medium to low TFR, the greatest emissions, and the highest GDP per capita, as well as lower female population shares and moderate to low female unemployment. Overall, the findings help to explain how fertility and emissions interact with other country characteristics, enlightening us on the many demographic and environmental patterns observed within the EU.
When the recent Eurostat data for the focused variables became available for additional countries relevant to this study, such as Serbia and Montenegro, a separate analysis was conducted with fewer variables, which reshaped the previous clustering due to new variability in the data across a larger number of countries.