Abstract

One of the consequences of climate change, which has been attracting the attention of the research community and policy-makers, is the rural-urban migration (Piguet et al., 2011). The specific nexus of interest is the impact of environmental and climatic factors on migration, as well as the additional interplay with other push or pull factors. Recent studies showed that climate events and trends have impacted migration flows (Kaczan & Orgill-Meyer, 2020). Therefore, there is interest in unravelling and better understanding the mechanisms through which climate-induced migration occurs. It is of special importance and value to understand these patterns in emerging economies, such as the Republic of Serbia, which are greatly affected by rising temperatures and climate change (Miric et al., 2024).
The Republic of Serbia, located in the south-east part of Europe at the Balkan Peninsula, has been experiencing a warming trend with accelerated temperature increase since the 1980s (Vukovic et al., 2018). Based on its geographical position, mostly lowland with flat terrain, and the fact that a large percentage of the territory belongs to the Pannonian basin, agriculture is a significant aspect of the Serbian economy, contributing 6.2% to the GDP in 2022 (SORS, 2022). With the changing climate factors, especially rising temperature and drought, the country’s economy and, therefore, citizens' safety issues are at risk and under uncertainty (Vukovic et al., 2016). At the same time, since the 1980s, Serbian internal migration has evolved toward movement from smaller rural settlements to larger urban and economic centers (Santić & Trnavcevic, 2022). Bakic and Trnavcevic (2025) recently attempted to link rural population migration in Serbia from 2006 to 2022 with the occurrence of drought. Their literature review pointed out that drought had an impact on migration in specific countries, but that effect has not been registered in Serbia in the recent period using the chosen methodology. However, this paper is a clear signal that similar studies are needed to understand and mitigate the possible impacts.
To assess the impact of various environmental and social factors on rural migration in the Republic of Serbia and Vojvodina region, a conceptual model is proposed. The model consists of four elements: Rural population and migration, Social factor, Agricultural aspect, and Climate factors. The interplay between the model elements is observed in two periods: 2002-2011 and 2011-2022. The analysis will be based on the official data published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and other reputable national agencies. To assess the validity and quality of the model, structural equation modeling (SEM) and multigroup SEM analysis will be employed. The proposed approach will enable us not only to observe the impact of environmental factors on population dynamics but also to examine the trend over the past 20 years. The research will identify factors that may act as triggers for rural migration, providing policymakers and institutions with valuable insights. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, Grant no. 7358, Population dynamics under environmental challenges in Serbia – POPENVIROS.