Abstract

Africa has abundant renewable energy potentials but their utilisation is affected by climate variation, infrastructure deficit and socio-economic status leading to an uncertainty in renewable energy planning and investments. Traditional assessment of regional renewable energy potential does not incorporate these issues leading to over-estimation of potential, conflicting resource assessment results in the same region and lack of objective information for decision making. In this study, we addressed these issues using a robust approach that combines ensemble climate models with machine learning algorithms, GIS based spatial analysis, and hydrological simulations. Four regions (North, East, South, and West Africa) are considered for renewable energy assessment. Climate projection data, hydrological data from major African catchments, socio-economic data (population density, demand growth, and electricity access), and infrastructure data (grid-connection and storage capacity) were used for the analysis. The methodology involves ensemble models generating probabilistic projections for resource availability, machine learning algorithms improving the performance by 32%, GIS overlay analysis combining climate and socio-economic factors to generate suitability index, and stochastic hydrological simulations for water-limited hydropower resources to determine reliability. Results show North and South Africa are most suitable for solar (0.92 and 0.89 respectively), East Africa has highest potential for wind (0.88) and hydropower (0.85), while West Africa has more drought (35%) and less suitability (0.75) and underperforming hydropower basins, with Congo as the most reliable (250,000 GWh/year) and Nile and Senegal as the most variable. The composite renewable energy readiness index indicates South Africa as the most suitable region for renewable energy development (0.87), followed by North Africa (0.82), East Africa (0.79) and West Africa (0.74). Overall, solar is the most reliable source in north and south, while east benefits from diversity while the west needs hybrid solutions to offset its vulnerability. This approach enhances reliable, sustainable and inclusive renewable energy development in Africa.