Abstract

For many years, the US census has provided data forming the legal and statistical basis to improve the lives of Americans, including those who are Indigenous. That may change. A Federal Register Notice (91FR 57524), published September 10, 2026, proposes changes to the upcoming 2030 census, which would adversely affect data on Indigenous Americans. This presentation discusses how these proposed changes could impact the 2030 census for Indigenous Americans if adopted in whole, in part or not at all. There are four groups of Indigenous Americans in the United States: (1) American Indians; (2) Alaska Natives (e.g., Aleuts, Inuit, Yupik and those who belong to an American Indian Tribe in Alaska); (3) Native Hawaiians; and, (4) Other Pacific Islanders (e.g. those from Guam or American Samoa). Collectively, American Indians and Alaska Natives are referred to as AIAN and Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders as NHOPI. According to the 2020 census, Indigenous Americans comprised 2.1 percent of the total population. Due to their small numbers, the US Census is the main, if not the only data source in determining the size and characteristics of Indigenous Americans. Since 2010, the annual American Community Survey (ACS) has been used to produce characteristics data of Indigenous Americans at the national and larger regional levels.
If these proposed changes are adopted, the effect on AIAN and NHOPI communities would be profound. Specifically, there are two major parts. The first concerns residency, wherein the concept of usual residency over a few months replaces residence on April 1. Implications for transient populations are unclear. Furthermore, residents would be limited to citizens and certain others seeking citizenship. Secondly, race and ethnicity data would be eliminated. This would make it no longer possible to identify racial and ethnic minorities, including Indigenous Americans. The impact would be far-reaching and hamper research and statistics needed to plan, fund and implement health, housing, education, transportation and other programs for Indigenous peoples. Census estimates are required by law to annually fund nearly $37.5 billion to AIAN people, according to the National Congress of American Indians.
The sample-based ACS would nominally not be affected with the elimination of race and ethnic data from the census, but without national census data on race - statistics and analyses would be compromised. Although the proposed rule mentions administrative data, such as tax data, to provide additional information, this does not appear feasible.
Time is of the essence. Topics for the US census need to be submitted to Congress April 1, 2027 and specific questions on April 1, 2028. The public comment period for this proposed rule ends November 2, 2026, after which decisions can be made.