Abstract

The period 2020–2024 was characterized by overlapping macroeconomic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains, rising energy prices, high inflation, and monetary policy tightening. These developments placed considerable pressure on household purchasing power, consumption patterns, and financial security, highlighting the need for a multidimensional assessment of economic vulnerability.
The aim of this study is to assess changes in the economic vulnerability of households in Poland during 2020–2024 and to identify differences in vulnerability across socio-economic household groups. Particular attention is paid to whether the relative economic positions of these groups changed during periods of heightened macroeconomic instability. The analysis is based on aggregated data from the Household Budget Survey conducted by Statistics Poland (GUS), supplemented by selected macroeconomic indicators. Historical data preceding 2020 provide a reference for interpreting developments observed during the study period.
The methodological framework combines descriptive statistics, analysis of income and expenditure dynamics, and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The TOPSIS method is applied to construct a composite indicator of household economic vulnerability, incorporating dimensions related to real disposable income, consumption expenditure, the share of essential expenditure in household budgets, and the relationship between income and expenditure. Indicators are classified according to their expected relationship with economic vulnerability, and a consistent normalization framework is proposed to support comparisons across years. The analysis also considers the comparability of the underlying survey data and incorporates sensitivity analyses of indicator selection and weighting schemes to evaluate the robustness of the composite scores and rankings.
The proposed approach enables a multidimensional comparison of the relative economic vulnerability of socio-economic household groups and an examination of changes in their positions over time. Rather than estimating the probability of individual financial losses, the composite indicator captures differences in economic conditions associated with vulnerability to macroeconomic pressures.
The study contributes to the statistical assessment of household economic risk and provides a framework for monitoring economic vulnerability and financial resilience. Its findings are expected to support a better understanding of distributional differences in household responses to macroeconomic instability and to inform evidence-based social and economic policy.