64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

Forecasting Malaria Morbidity to 2036 Based on Geo-Climatic Factors in the Democratic Republic of Congo


64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

Format: CPS Abstract


Malaria is a global burden in terms of morbidity and mortality. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, malaria prevalence is increasing due to strong climatic variations. Reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality, the fight against climate change, good health and well-being constitute key development aims as set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study aims to predict malaria morbidity to 2036 in relation to climate variations between 2001 and 2019, which may serve as a basis to develop an early warning system that integrates monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and early detection of anomalies in weather patterns




Malaria cases

Test for evaluating the accuracy of the forecasts.

Multivariate time series analysis of Geoclimatic factors and Malaria Morbidity

forecasts from various applied methods of malaria episodes in DRC