Proposal Description

This session will focus on statistical aspects of cases of suspicion of a healthcare serial killer. 15 years ago, one of the biggest miscarriages of justice in the Netherlands was resolved when Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk was exonerated of multiple murder charges of patients in her care, at several hospitals in The Hague. 9 years had gone by since her first arrest, most of that time spent in prison. Statistical evidence of her frequent presence at unexpected and at the time seemingly inexplicable incidents (collapses, deaths) had played a major role in her initial conviction. In the UK, a similar case is right now arousing great controversy: the case of nurse Lucy Letby. Statistical evidence has long been crucial in many criminal cases; the most obvious example being DNA evidence. But statistical evidence has a long history of being misinterpreted in the courtroom and misunderstood in police investigations. We hope the session will stimulate us statisticians to think about how to communicate our science in the courtroom, and stimulate much-needed discussion: what are we doing right, what are we doing wrong?