Proposal Description

Organiser: Robert Leisch (Eurostat), Kristy Howell (IMF Statistics Department)

Proposed duration: 90 minutes

Keywords: Balance of Payments, National Accounts, SNA, ESA, BPM, Asymmetries

Abstract

Persistent significant global and bilateral asymmetries in Balance of Payments (BOP) statistics provide different or sometimes even contradictory messages to data users and policy decision makers, limit the usefulness of these values when it comes to their economic interpretation, undermine the credibility in official statistics, and pose challenges to national compilers to address these discrepancies. Another relevant issue in this context are discrepancies between BOP and National Accounts (NA) rest of the world figures that in theory should not exist but in practice may contribute as well to misunderstandings of macroeconomic statistics data. This topic is particularly timely as countries prepare to implement the latest international macroeconomic statistical standards, including the Integrated Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 7th edition (BPM7) and the System of National Accounts, 2025 (2025 SNA).

Chair

The Eurostat chair will make an introduction about asymmetries in BOP, why they matter for data users and policymakers.

Presentations

The session comprises [five] presentations, drawing on the experience of international institutions and an EU Member State, as well as a perspective from Southeast Asia. The contributors will be confirmed in due course.

1. IMF representing the TT GA
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will present the findings of the Task Team on Global Asymmetries (TT GA), established by the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPCOM) to investigate and recommend ways to reduce global and bilateral asymmetries in external sector statistics. The presentation will emphasize potential for global initiatives to address global asymmetries systematically

2. Eurostat
In this presentation the audience will get a comprehensive overview of what is done by Eurostat to detect and assess asymmetries like the biannual BOP quality report, the annual progress report on asymmetries for various BOP items like trade in goods, services, compensation of employees or remittances. Information about various initiatives like the ITSS asymmetry resolution mechanism, a workshop to improve data for remittances to reduce asymmetries in BOP and how inconsistencies between BOP and NA data are addressed will be shared as well.

3. ECB (to be confirmed)
A delegate from the ECB will provide information about the activities of the ECB to monitor and reduce asymmetries in euro area BOP and IIP, both within the euro area and vis-à-vis some of the main trading partners. In the field of direct investment, the presentation will focus on the quarterly asymmetry resolution mechanism (ARM) which targets the largest intra-EU bilateral asymmetries in FDI transactions. Moreover, the presentation will deal with the challenges and efforts in reducing discrepancies between financial accounts BOP and national accounts data.

4. Deutsche Bundesbank (to be confirmed)
The reasons for bilateral asymmetries in BOP due to different data sources, estimations, compilation approaches and incorrect country allocations will be explained from a BOP compiler perspective. Practical experience will be shared how bilateral asymmetries are detected, monitored and what can be done to reduce them. Finally, insights and outcomes of dedicated BOP asymmetry resolution exercises in which the country has participated will close this presentation.

5. Amila Wijayawardhana, IMF Long-Term Expert
This presentation will share practical regional experience from Southeast Asia in addressing asymmetries in balance of payments statistics through a systematic, partner-country approach. Drawing on capacity development work in the region, it will show how bringing compilers from counterpart economies together from the beginning of the statistical development process can help ensure consistency by design and reduce the likelihood of bilateral asymmetries emerging over time.