64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

Experiences measuring excess mortality in the context of the pandemic caused by Covid-19 through statistical models.


Mr Edgar Vielma Orozco


  • EV
    Mr Edgar Vielma Orozco
  • DB
    Debbie Bradshaw
  • DS
    Daniela Schmid
  • DK
    Dmitry Kobak
  • Category: International Statistical Institute


    Abstract: Excess mortality is a valuable measure to estimate the impact of natural disasters, famines, unusual population movements, and pandemics, among others, on the population. Mainly, in this case, the pandemic caused by Covid-19 is of special relevance. In this session, the experiences of various countries in the use of statistical models that have made it possible to have an estimate of excess mortality will be presented, which, when considered as a continuous monitoring tool, allows knowing the dimensions of the impact of the pandemic and in turn make strategic health decisions for the benefit of the population of the countries. In this table, the traditional methods, the essential elements, and concepts that surround excess mortality will be discussed. Still, it will also represent an opportunity to share those new approaches, methodologies, and technologies, which due to the need of the National Statistical Offices of the countries, made it possible to generate innovations in this area.
    Guiding questions for discussion in this session are:
    • How were the estimates of excess mortality implemented, and what statistical models were used to make the estimates?
    • What advantages did measuring excess mortality bring with it through different statistical methodologies in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic?
    • What were the main challenges, and how were they addressed?
    • What collaborative strategies that involved the interaction of various institutions were implemented to estimate excess mortality?